The housing affordability index is calculated from median household income, median sales price and prevailing interest rates. While the increasing average sales price creates equity for sellers, the housing affordability index in the Fort Wayne area was declining long before the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. Figure 3: Fort Wayne-area average sales price Comparing October 2012’s average of $134,107 to the most recent number, the average closed sales price escalated 89.4%. The Fort Wayne-area average sales price first crossed the $200,000 mark in May 2020 and has been above that price since January 2021. Despite the recent uptick in available listings, Fort Wayne remains a solid seller’s market.įigure 2: Fort Wayne-area months supply of inventoryĪs for average closed sales price, UPSTAR data shows September at $254,031, up 8.8% from $233,388 in September 2021. From June through September, inventory ranged from 1.1 to 1.4 months. In 2022, January to May had less than a month’s supply of inventory. For the six-month mark, one has to go back to October 2012. Using the four-month threshold, the Fort Wayne area has been a seller’s market for more than seven years (it was last at four months of inventory in July 2015). Less than that and it’s a seller’s market more than that would be a buyer’s market. Somewhere between four and six months of inventory is considered a “balanced” market, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. UPSTAR reports the months supply of inventory, which is calculated by the inventory of homes for sale at month’s end divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months. Source: Upstate Alliance of Realtors (UPSTAR) Multiple Listing Service Note: Data are shown through September 2022. For comparison, 2019 had an average of 1,211 available homes monthly.įigure 1: Fort Wayne-area inventory of homes for sale The last time the Fort Wayne area had more than 1,000 listed homes was March 2020. In September, the seven-county region had 1,002 houses available for sale, which reflected a 29.3% jump from September 2021’s 775 units. The inventory of homes for sale – the number of properties for sale in active status at the end of a given month – coupled with months supply of inventory is a good place to start. The housing market has natural seasonal fluctuations, so some of the recent changes may reflect the calendar and not overall market trends. We created a 10-year time series of monthly data for a variety of relevant data points to understand how the housing market has changed over time and how those numbers are shifting under current conditions. Looking at the housing market as an economic bellwether, we used data from the Upstate Alliance of Realtors (UPSTAR) Multiple Listing Service, serving the seven-county region of Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Huntington, Noble, Wells and Whitley counties. The Federal Reserve’s increased interest rates come as the central bank seeks to curb inflation. Fort Wayne-area housing marketĪs of this writing, the interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has cracked the 7% threshold, making it the highest it has been in two decades and decreasing the affordability of new home purchases. This modeling estimates unemployment rates for the Fort Wayne metro at around 2% next year. While shoppers can make different choices in their grocery cart (think swapping out beef for poultry), natural gas service gives little choice or substitution options.įor the 2023 Fort Wayne outlook, we look at historical trends in the housing market and predictions for the upcoming year’s unemployment rate modeled using historical labor market information plus CPI data. These two household essentials are inescapable costs, especially as families and individuals prepare for the winter heating season. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Midwest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed piped gas service up 17.4% in October, as compared to 12 months prior, while food at home, better known as groceries, was up 13.2% in that same time period. In contrast, inflation, especially for food and energy, continues to weigh on the local, state and national economies alike. In other words, the lack of available workers to fill open positions remains ever present with no obvious end in sight. an unemployment rate below 5%, since October 2020, with the pandemic low of 1.4% in December 2021. The Fort Wayne metro has enjoyed “full employment,” i.e. In September, the Fort Wayne metro area – consisting of Allen, Wells and Whitley counties – had a non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 2.0% according to Indiana Department of Workforce Development data, compared to 2.2% statewide and 3.3% nationally. Associate Professor of Economics, Purdue University Fort WayneĪs the second-largest city in the state, Fort Wayne is not immune to the curious alignment of current economic pressures, namely uncomfortably high inflation coupled with near record-low unemployment.
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